Altseason

When you're active in the world of crypto, you'll hear the term "Altseason" come up regularly. It's an important period for many crypto traders because this is the period where a lot of money can be made with Altcoins. Consequently, this is often at the expense of Bitcoin's value. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know when Altseason starts. However, it is possible to make a prediction based on an analysis. In this article, we will explain to you what Altseason is and how you could predict when this period starts (and of course ends).

What is Altseason?

This term comes from the English language and means in English the "season of the Altcoins". It is a period when Altcoins gain a lot of value compared to Bitcoin (BTC). By Altcoins we mean all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin. Therefore, it also stands for Alternative Coins.

During this period, it is much more interesting to invest your money in these different cryptocurrencies than in Bitcoin, as the returns will be much higher than when it is not Altseason.

But why isn't it always Altseason? Altcoins and Bitcoins often alternate in terms of popularity. Therefore, there is a time where Altcoins rise substantially, and Bitcoin lags behind. And of course, there is also a time where Bitcoin rises in value faster than the Altcoins do. You will see a big difference between Bitcoin and crypto coins as Ethereum, Cardano or Polkadot.

When Bitcoin rises quickly in a significant value, then it is more interesting to invest in it because the relative value of Altcoins to Bitcoin will fall during this period. If Bitcoin loses a lot of value in a very short period of time, the value of most Altcoins will also drop significantly. This is because people often convert their Altcoins to Bitcoin in that case, and then sell the Bitcoin for euros or dollars.

It is very interesting and useful to know what period you are in when you are a crypto trader. This way you will know which approach you can use best, in order to make as much money as possible. However, you'll soon see that it's difficult to determine when it's Altseason.

Is there a certain date for Altseason?

No, there is not a certain date for Altseason. It means there is no one who knows when Altseason will actually begin. However, it is possible to make a prediction based on technical analysis. This is the opposite of fundamental analysis, where you mainly research the price of Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies). Based on this research, you can recognize patterns in the current price, in order to make an estimate in when Altseason will start. Similarly, you can also estimate when Altseason is likely to end. However, it takes a lot of time and effort before you can actually make correct predictions based on a technical analysis you've done yourself.

When does Altseason begin and end?

It is the question that most people would like to know the answer to how long does Altseason last? It would be nice to know when it starts, and it would be equally nice if we could predict how long it will last and what peak it may reach.

To do that, you need to analyze Bitcoin's behaviour during the previous two Altseasons. Based on this data, you can identify patterns, and then determine when another Altseason is likely to arrive (and when it will end again).

Altseason 1 - February 25, 2017 through June 19, 2017

We can see that Altcoins began to rapidly gain ground against Bitcoin from February 25. Bitcoin's dominance from that point to June 19 dropped from 86.5% to 38%. This 48.5% drop means that Bitcoin lost 56% of its market share to Altcoins. After this period, you can see that Bitcoin is regaining ground. It then reaches a dominance of 62%.

Altseason 2 - December 7, 2017 to January 13, 2018

During the second Altseason, the first scenario repeated itself again. Between December 7, 2017 and January 13, 2018, Bitcoin's dominance went from 62% to 32%. During this period, Bitcoin lost 48% of its market share to the Altcoins.

Then Bitcoin rises again to 46% dominance on April 1, 2018, after which another Altseason begins.

In these two examples, you can see that Altseason can last several months. By analyzing this data and recognizing patterns in the current price, you can predict for yourself when it will be Altseason again. Analyzing this data to make a prediction on it is called technical analysis.

How could you predict Altseason with these figures?

You have seen that the duration of both Altseasons is very different from each other in terms of duration. The first season lasted just under 4 months, while the second season lasted just 1 month. With this data, you can still draw some very interesting conclusions, and then make a prediction for the future. We do this by using a calculation model that is used by many crypto traders.

  • During the first Altseason, Bitcoin went from 86.5% dominance to 38%. That's a drop of 48.5%. Then it rose to 62%. 38% + 48,5 * 50% = +/- 62%.
  • During the second alt season, BTC went from 62% dominance to 32%. That's a 30% drop. Then it rose to 46%. Now 32% + 30 * 50% = +/- 46%.
It seems that from one alt season to the next, Bitcoin recovers half of what it lost before moving on to a new alt season.

Based on these assumptions and taking into account that Bitcoin's relative share lost about 56% and 48% during the two previous seasons, we could make a prediction that Bitcoin will lose about 42% of its relative share of the global market cap during the next one.

This could mean that the next Altseason will thus end when Bitcoin has a relative share of the market cap of about 27%. We don't know exactly when Altseason might start, but we do have a value at which it might happen.

These calculations are done on historical data, and thus say nothing about the next Altseason. It is just a way you could calculate when Altseason starts. Always think carefully before making an investment based on your calculations.

Conclusion

Thus, the Altseason is the period when Altcoins increase in value faster and in larger numbers than Bitcoin. This is therefore at the expense of Bitcoin's value and market share. Many crypto traders want to invest a lot of money in Altcoins at the beginning of Altseason, in order to be able to sell them with a big profit at the end of Altseason.

However, nobody knows for sure when Altseason will start, it is possible to try to find out by performing a technical analysis. You then research figures from the past, in order to be able to recognize patterns in the current price. It is, however, important to take into account that you could also be wrong. That's why it's best to practice performing technical analysis first before you're actually going to invest a large amount of money based on the outcome of the analysis.