After six consecutive years of positive Octobers, it appears that Bitcoin may end this month with a loss for the first time since 2018. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by just over 3% in October, meaning the well-known nickname “Uptober” might not live up to its reputation this year.

The end of the Uptober streak

For years, October has been known as one of Bitcoin‘s strongest trading months. Since 2013, “Uptober” has often delivered impressive returns, with only two negative exceptions — in 2014 and 2018. From 2019 through 2024, Bitcoin enjoyed six consecutive years of gains, often recording double-digit monthly growth. In 2025, however, the picture looks different. Despite a strong start to the month, Bitcoin‘s price is now around 3.3% lower than at the beginning of October. This marks the potential end of Bitcoin‘s historic “Uptober” run.


Monthly returns for Bitcoin. Source: Coinglass

What caused the decline?

Bitcoin‘s decline was accelerated mid-month by a sudden market correction triggered by renewed concerns over trade tariffs between the United States and China. In addition, the Federal Reserve‘s recent 0.25% interest rate cut did little to boost investor confidence. According to analysts, October has been unusually volatile this year. “The crypto market has humbled a lot of traders — momentum has faded, and confidence has been shaken,” one trader wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

What could November bring?

The big question now is: what lies ahead in November? Historically, November has been Bitcoin‘s strongest month of the year, with an average return of 46% over the past twelve years (source: CoinGlass). The final quarter (October to December) is typically also the best period for the broader crypto market, averaging gains of around 78%.

However, analysts caution that there‘s no consistent relationship between October‘s performance and the months that follow. In some years — like 2018 — November saw a sharp downturn, while in others, powerful recovery rallies emerged. Market researcher Timothy Peterson notes that the outlook for Q4 remains constructive: “After a weak October, Bitcoin‘s average return over the following three months is around 11%. In strong Octobers, that average rises to 21%.”

Outlook: is the bull market still intact?

Despite the current dip, long-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive. In recent years, Bitcoin has delivered strong Q4 performances — 57% in 2023 and 48% in 2024. Even during weaker market cycles, the final months of the year have often marked periods of significant price movement.

If that pattern repeats, Bitcoin could once again move towards $150,000 in the coming months. Whether “Uptober” ends in the red or not — the real test for the market begins in November.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and seek professional guidance before making investment decisions.