Despite earlier speculation that increasing institutional interest would break the pattern, recent price movements of Bitcoin still appear to fit within the historical four-year halving cycle, according to a report from onchain analyst Glassnode.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin‘s current price patterns show striking similarities with previous cycles. This suggests that the market may be further along in the cycle than many investors expect.

Signs of Cooling

Long-term holders, those who have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, are now taking profits in a way similar to previous euphoric phases. This reinforces the impression of a market in a later stage of the cycle. At the same time, demand shows signs of fatigue: capital inflows into Bitcoin are declining, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen outflows of nearly $1 billion over four trading days.

Since the peak of $124,128 in August, Bitcoin‘s price has dropped about 8%, prompting traders to consider more speculative positions in other cryptocurrencies. Open interest in major altcoins briefly reached a record level of $60 billion before dropping by $2.5 billion.

What Does This Mean for the Cycle?

If Bitcoin continues to follow its typical pattern, new highs could potentially occur as early as October. In previous cycles, such as those in 2018 and 2022, peaks often came two to three months after the cycle low. Some analysts note that current market indicators align with this timeframe.

However, not everyone agrees that the four-year cycle is still in effect. Some experts point to the increasing holdings of Bitcoin by public treasuries and the growing demand for spot ETFs as factors that could alter the cycle. This highlights that the crypto market is constantly evolving, and familiar patterns can sometimes bring surprises.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and seek professional guidance.