Bitcoin (BTC) has long been associated with a predictable four-year market cycle, often linked to its halving events. However, recent analysis suggests that while the cycle itself still exists, the forces shaping it today look very different from those of the past. According to research firm 10x Research, political developments and global liquidity conditions now play a far greater role than Bitcoin‘s programmed supply changes.

Rethinking the Role of the Halving

For years, Bitcoin halvings were seen as the primary catalyst behind major bull markets. Yet Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, argues that this explanation is becoming less convincing. Halving dates have shifted across the calendar, while Bitcoin‘s major price peaks continue to appear in a similar timeframe.

Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin reached major highs in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all during the fourth quarter. This consistency suggests that the timing of market tops may be influenced less by the halving itself and more by broader external factors.

Political Cycles and Liquidity Conditions

Thielen points to U.S. political cycles as a key influence. Periods of heightened political activity, including elections and fiscal debates, often coincide with changes in market sentiment and capital flows. These shifts can have a significant impact on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Liquidity is another critical component. While interest-rate cuts have historically supported asset prices, the current environment looks different. Institutional investors, now a dominant force in crypto markets, are acting more cautiously, especially amid mixed signals from central banks and governments.

What This Means for Bitcoin Investors

Rather than focusing solely on the next halving, investors may benefit from watching macroeconomic indicators more closely. Changes in monetary policy, fiscal spending and election outcomes could provide clearer signals about Bitcoin‘s next major move than its fixed supply schedule.

This view is shared by other market observers as well. Some analysts argue that tightening or easing liquidity conditions have been the real turning points in previous bull and bear markets, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is increasingly shaped by the same forces affecting traditional financial markets.

In summary:

Unchanged: The four-year cycle still appears to exist.

Shifted: Political events and liquidity now outweigh the halving as key drivers.

Focus: Monitoring macroeconomic conditions may offer better market insights.

As Bitcoin continues to mature and attract institutional capital, understanding these broader influences will likely become even more important for navigating future market cycles.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making investment decisions.