As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight range around the $88,000 mark, with traders and analysts focused on how the 2025 yearly candle will close. A drop below the opening price could mean the first “red” post-halving annual candle in Bitcoin‘s history — a development that would challenge the idea of a reliable four-year cycle.

Price action remains muted

Bitcoin‘s price saw only modest movement over the weekend, with volatility low as traders awaited fresh catalysts. The lack of strong directional momentum has kept prices compressed, despite occasional attempts to push higher. Many market participants are watching closely for a breakout from this narrow range.

Bullish indicators hint at possible rebound

Some analysts have highlighted technical signals that suggest a rebound could be possible. For example, a bullish divergence on longer timeframes implies buyers may be stepping in at key support levels. Certain traders also point to historical patterns that have preceded recoveries in the past, raising the prospect of price action turning upwards as the calendar flips to 2026.

Market structure under scrutiny

On the bearish side, Bitcoin‘s year-to-date performance remains negative, with prices roughly 6 % lower than at the start of the year. A red yearly candle could be interpreted as a sign that the typical post-halving strength seen in earlier cycles may be weakening — at least for 2025. Some observers argue this outcome would force a reassessment of traditional cycle theory.

Key levels to watch

A retest of the yearly open around $93,500 could offer a final opportunity for bulls to shift sentiment, while extended consolidation near $88K underscores the market‘s indecision. Whether Bitcoin closes the annual candle in green or red, the outcome will provide insight into broader investor conviction heading into the next year.

In summary:

Stalled price action: Bitcoin remains near $88,000 with limited volatility.

Bullish signals: Some technical indicators suggest potential for a rebound.

Cycle implications: A red yearly candle could challenge the classic four-year narrative.

Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.