Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $86,000 mark on Monday as the market continued to show a clear liquidity imbalance. While smaller participants actively bought the dip, larger holders used the incoming demand to offload positions, keeping downside pressure firmly in place.

The key question now is whether Bitcoin can hold this level, or if further downside is still ahead.

Dip buying by retail, distribution by whales

Data from Hyblock Capital highlights a growing divergence in market behavior. Retail traders and smaller wallets ($0–$10,000) accumulated roughly $169 million worth of Bitcoin, while mid-sized participants ($1,000–$100,000) added another $305 million in net spot exposure.

Combined, these groups generated approximately $474 million in buy-side pressure, driven by the belief that prices below $100,000 represent an attractive entry zone.

Whales remain firmly in control of the sell-side

That buying interest, however, was overshadowed by aggressive selling from large wallets. Whales holding between $100,000 and $10 million in BTC sold an estimated $2.78 billion over the same period.

The collective buying power of smaller traders proved insufficient to absorb this level of distribution. While retail sees discounted prices, larger players appear to view the same range as an opportunity to reduce exposure.

Signs of capitulation among short-term holders

Onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr also pointed to the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR), measured using a seven-day moving average. The metric has recently dipped below 1 and is hovering around 0.99, indicating that coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a loss on average.

Historically, such conditions often align with local capitulation phases, where selling pressure peaks. However, Adler cautioned that this alone does not confirm a trend reversal. A sustained recovery would require SOPR to reclaim and hold above 1, signaling that demand is beginning to absorb supply.

Downside risk remains elevated

With Bitcoin‘s short-term bullish structure now invalidated, the risk of a deeper pullback has increased. A potential retest of the quarterly low around $80,600 remains on the table as long as whale-led selling pressure persists.

In summary:

Buy-side: Retail and mid-sized traders continue to buy the dip.

Sell-side: Whales dominate with billions in distribution.

Outlook: Without a recovery in demand, a move toward $80,600 remains possible.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.