History is no guarantee for the future, as it shows after another strong month for Bitcoin. In the past, March has often been a bearish month for Bitcoin, but this year is different. March ended with a 23% increase from $48,000 to $59,000.
Also in the first 2 months of the year, Bitcoin (BTC
) has risen exceptionally fast, so much so that it has officially been the best Q1 (first quarter of the year) for BTC in 8 years.
BTC price gains 103% in Q1
March has been a hectic month for Bitcoin. A new all-time high of just over $60,000 was set, but 2 weeks later the price was already down 15%. And while the # 1 cryptocurrency
hasn't rocketed to new heights before Q2 kicked off, March has turned out to be an exceptional month. In the past 8 years, it has only happened twice that Bitcoin managed to rise in March, in 2013 and in 2019.
If we zoom out to Q1 2021, we see a green candle on the monthly timeframe for all three months, which means that Bitcoin has managed to rise every month for the past 3 months. Together, these three months have resulted in an increase of 103.1%. On January 1, the price was about $29,000 and the price has already risen by $30,000 per Bitcoin.
2013 was the last year that Bitcoin performed better in Q1 than this year. This was also the time when 1 Bitcoin was worth less than $100 and was still under the radar of the general public. in Q1 2013, Bitcoin managed to rise by a whopping 539%. At the time, however, the market was still a lot younger and relatively much less money was needed for a large increase.
Most people are already on the edge of their seats for the next few months, as Q2 is historically the strongest time of the year for Bitcoin. There have only been 2 years where Bitcoin fell in Q2. The benchmark for this year is a 159% increase that Bitcoin underwent in Q2 2019. This was again the strongest second quarter of the year since 2013.
Right on track
So simply studying raw data gives the feeling that Bitcoin is performing exactly as expected in the year following a block subsidy halving, traditionally the strongest in any four-year halving cycle.
Comparing this cycle to earlier ones - and 2021 to 2013 and 2017 - meanwhile shows that Bitcoin, regardless of all-time highs, has done nothing special.
Quantitative analyst PlanB uploaded the latest version of a chart showing price movements after each halving and dismissed concerns that BTC has risen too quickly in recent months.
“Bitcoin is currently between the 2013 and 2017 tracks,” he summarized his Twitter followers.
According to PlanB's stock-to-flow pricing models are asking for an average price of $100,000 or $288,000 this cycle, with the former probably being too conservative as the top now.