Will Bitcoin Rise, Fall, or Consolidate? - Weekly Bitcoin Forecast
This week, another deep dive into the Bitcoin chart! This week, we will zoom in on BTC's price action again. From the monthly chart to the 4-hour chart, to determine whether the trend is bullish, bearish, or neutral. Which key levels should you watch? And what can we expect in the coming days?
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely informational and not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing!
We are still within the monthly FVG, which makes this a key level to hold. This doesn't automatically mean you should turn bearish once the price goes below the blue box, but it would be concerning if a large candle closes below this level on the monthly chart.
Short explanation: An FVG (Fair Value Gap) is an area in the chart where price is out of balance, formed by three candles. In a bullish scenario, it occurs when the upper wick of the first candle does not touch the lower wick of the third candle.
A common price action is consolidation within this area. The price can then temporarily drop, which may give the impression of a bearish move, before moving back up. Retail investors are more likely to close their position or take a short position. Larger institutional players or whales use this liquidity to expand their position. Without such a 'liquidity grab' or 'short/long squeeze', there would be insufficient volume or liquidity for these larger players to trade effectively.
If we zoom deeper into the weekly chart, we get more insight into the area we are currently in. We still do not see a lower low on this timeframe, indicating that the price is still bullish on this term. Furthermore, the price is respecting the monthly FVG for now, suggesting that the bearish target is currently out of reach.
The week also begins bullish, which suggests that a bullish FVG might form on the weekly chart. This would certainly be a positive development. However, since the week is still in its early stages, it doesn't say much about how the rest of the week will unfold. We will only know after this week if the weekly FVG has formed.
Once the weekly Fair Value Gap is confirmed, we can look at the All Time High as a target. But in the meantime, anything can happen.
The current trend is still bearish, but there is potential for a reversal to bullish. Since the previous ATH, the price on the daily chart is making lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish trend.
The week has just started, so we need to wait and see how the price behaves from here. Since we are currently between a lower high and a lower low, the direction is still uncertain. Let's zoom into the 4-hour chart to gather more information.
We are keeping the markings from the daily chart as you can see, with the lower highs and lower lows still visible.
The blue area on the 4-hour chart shows that the price is within the range of the last high and low. This means that we can't yet say whether the trend is bullish or bearish. Only when the price breaks out with significant momentum can we draw a clear conclusion.
However, we do see something interesting. On the 4-hour chart, we are in a ‘bullish‘ trend. This is shown in the charts with the blue markings. Higher highs and higher lows. But until you are in the blue area, it doesn't necessarily mean that the price is bullish again.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is important to conduct your own research and base your decisions on your personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely informational and not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing!
What should you keep in mind?
It is wise to anticipate the important economic figures that will be published this week. Such figures can affect the broader economy and indirectly impact the crypto market. We often notice that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies react to changes in the macro-economy. Therefore, this week it is important to closely monitor the following data:- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Monday, 24-03)
- Flash Services PMI (Monday, 24-03)
- CPI y/y (GBP) (Wednesday, 26-03)
- Annual Budget Release (GBP) (Wednesday, 26-03)
- Final GDP q/q (USD) (Thursday, 27-03)
- Unemployment Claims (USD) (Thursday, 27-03)
- Retail Sales m/m (GBP) (Friday, 28-03)
- Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD) (Friday, 28-03)
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Are We Bullish or Bearish in the Long Term?
We start with the monthly timeframe, where each candle represents the price movement of a full month. By studying this price action, we get insight into the long-term trend. Since we have already considered the long-term view in the first weekly Bitcoin price analysis, we won‘t spend too much time on it today.
We are still within the monthly FVG, which makes this a key level to hold. This doesn't automatically mean you should turn bearish once the price goes below the blue box, but it would be concerning if a large candle closes below this level on the monthly chart.
Short explanation: An FVG (Fair Value Gap) is an area in the chart where price is out of balance, formed by three candles. In a bullish scenario, it occurs when the upper wick of the first candle does not touch the lower wick of the third candle.
A common price action is consolidation within this area. The price can then temporarily drop, which may give the impression of a bearish move, before moving back up. Retail investors are more likely to close their position or take a short position. Larger institutional players or whales use this liquidity to expand their position. Without such a 'liquidity grab' or 'short/long squeeze', there would be insufficient volume or liquidity for these larger players to trade effectively.
Are We Holding This Crucial Area?
If we zoom deeper into the weekly chart, we get more insight into the area we are currently in. We still do not see a lower low on this timeframe, indicating that the price is still bullish on this term. Furthermore, the price is respecting the monthly FVG for now, suggesting that the bearish target is currently out of reach.
The week also begins bullish, which suggests that a bullish FVG might form on the weekly chart. This would certainly be a positive development. However, since the week is still in its early stages, it doesn't say much about how the rest of the week will unfold. We will only know after this week if the weekly FVG has formed.
Once the weekly Fair Value Gap is confirmed, we can look at the All Time High as a target. But in the meantime, anything can happen.
Bitcoin Daily Trend: Is the Bearish Move Over?
The current trend is still bearish, but there is potential for a reversal to bullish. Since the previous ATH, the price on the daily chart is making lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish trend.
The week has just started, so we need to wait and see how the price behaves from here. Since we are currently between a lower high and a lower low, the direction is still uncertain. Let's zoom into the 4-hour chart to gather more information.
Are We Bullish Again in the Short Term?
We are keeping the markings from the daily chart as you can see, with the lower highs and lower lows still visible.
The blue area on the 4-hour chart shows that the price is within the range of the last high and low. This means that we can't yet say whether the trend is bullish or bearish. Only when the price breaks out with significant momentum can we draw a clear conclusion.
However, we do see something interesting. On the 4-hour chart, we are in a ‘bullish‘ trend. This is shown in the charts with the blue markings. Higher highs and higher lows. But until you are in the blue area, it doesn't necessarily mean that the price is bullish again.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is important to conduct your own research and base your decisions on your personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.