The Bitcoin price (BTC) is at the start of a highly decisive week. While the price remains stable around $91,000, several key economic events in the United States could determine the price direction for the remainder of December. The focus is entirely on interest rates, inflation, and the communication from the US central bank.

Bitcoin Navigates Between Support and Resistance

Last weekend, Bitcoin already showed some volatility, with the price briefly dropping below $88,000 but quickly recovering. This confirms the importance of the current support zone, which lies between $82,000 and $84,000. On the upside, the resistance around $92,000 forms a significant barrier. A clear breakthrough above that level could signal a resumption of the upward trend.

Key Economic Agenda for the US

Three crucial publications and a speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will influence the markets this week:

Tuesday: US Jobs Data (JOLTs)

On Tuesday, the JOLTs jobs figures—the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey—will be published, providing insight into the strength of the American labour market.

Weak figures: A weakening labour market may increase the likelihood of further interest rate cuts, which is generally viewed as positive for Bitcoin.
Strong figures: If the figures prove robust, this could temper expectations of a looser monetary policy and put pressure on the crypto market.

Wednesday: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday features the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Although the market has largely priced in an interest rate cut of 0.25 per cent, the real market reaction will follow during the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Dovish tone: If Powell hints at cooling inflation and a weakening economy, this could give Bitcoin a significant boost.
Hawkish tone: If the Fed Chair sounds strict about combating inflation, this could lead to uncertainty and a new decline in the crypto market.

Thursday: Unemployment Figures

On Thursday, new claims for unemployment benefits in the US will be announced. A rising number of applications indicates a weakening of the labour market and is typically received positively by risky assets, including crypto.

Why Macroeconomics is Crucial for Crypto

The Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market have a strong correlation with monetary policy. Historically, Bitcoin often rises when interest rates fall, the dollar weakens, and more liquidity enters the financial system. In such cycles, Bitcoin often reacts first to a milder stance from the central banks.

Possible Scenarios for the Bitcoin Price

Optimistic Scenario: With weak economic data, a positive tone from Powell, and further cooling of inflation, Bitcoin could break above $92,000 and initiate a move towards $100,000.

Pessimistic Scenario: If the figures disappoint and Powell sounds hawkish, a pullback of the Bitcoin price towards the $84,000 support or lower is a real possibility.

Conclusion:

This week is fundamental for Bitcoin's future direction. Everything revolves around the US economic data and the signal sent by the Federal Reserve. One speech could make the difference between a new uptrend or a period of sustained uncertainty.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always consider conducting your own research or consulting professional advice before investing.