Monad (MON), the native token of the Monad ecosystem, has made an impressive debut. While many newly launched airdrop tokens tend to lose momentum quickly—particularly in softer market conditions—MON surged more than 35% within its first day. Although the initial excitement is now easing, interest in the project remains high. Early market movements show that active traders are becoming more cautious, volatility remains elevated, and MON is still firmly in its typical “launch phase”. This means that short-term indicators are currently playing a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.

Market Dynamics: Growing Caution Among Larger Traders

Because MON only launched on 24 November, there is very little historical price data available. As a result, traders are focusing on short-term timeframes, such as the 1-hour chart, to better understand early trends. In the initial phase, liquidity is often thin, which leads to larger and more sudden price movements.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks capital flows from major market participants, attempted to rise on launch day but failed to break its upper trendline. Since then, the CMF has declined, suggesting that major buyers are currently putting less upward pressure on the price. Factors such as airdrop claims, reduced perpetual exposure and softer trading volume may also be contributing to additional selling pressure. In short: MON continues to trade under typical “post-launch” conditions, where sentiment can shift quickly.

Perpetual Traders Turning More Cautious

In the first days of trading, most new liquidity typically comes from the perpetual markets. These positions react quickly to market changes, making them a useful early indicator of direction. Over the past 24 hours, Monad (MON) sentiment among these traders has become more negative:

The 100 largest wallets have significantly reduced their buying activity. They shifted from net buyers to net sellers, indicating increased caution among major holders.

Experienced traders (“smart money”) now hold around $103.9 million in net short positions. This suggests they expect the price may decline and are therefore positioning more defensively.

Large investors (“whales”) also remain mainly short-biased, although they have recently opened more long positions. This softens the downward pressure slightly, but it does not yet change the overall sentiment.

Trading volume reinforces this picture. On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains flat, which means little new inflow is entering the market. Previous dips in OBV have corresponded with sharp price drops of around 20% within just one hour. Because OBV is not forming higher highs, the risk of sudden moves remains elevated. Taken together, these signals show that the market is currently cautious, resulting in price swings within a relatively tight trading range.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Monad is currently trading within a narrow band. Both the upside and downside have important levels that could influence market direction in the coming days.

Upside scenario:

A close above $0.044 could open the door towards $0.049.

However, this would require a rising OBV and a CMF breakout. Without this support, upward potential remains limited.

Downside scenario:

On the 4-hour chart, $0.029 serves as an important support zone.

A close below this level could send the price down to $0.023, roughly 25% lower than current levels.

This area acted as the base shortly after airdrop liquidity reached exchanges, and a breakdown would indicate that some recipients are still selling their newly received tokens.

With more than 10.8 billion tokens already unlocked and many wallets still transferring funds to exchanges, the likelihood of significant price volatility remains high.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies.