Tiger Research predicts that Bitcoin could climb to $190,000 in the third quarter. Their model sets a base price of $135,000, then adds multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%), resulting in the forecast. This implies a 67% rise compared to the current average of around $113,000.

Key takeaways:

• Institutional demand from ETFs and 401(k) pension funds could add nearly $90 billion of new capital into Bitcoin.
• ETFs now hold 1.3 million BTC, while MicroStrategy owns more than 629,000 coins.
• Despite bullish projections, on-chain indicators show a market that is active but not overheated.

Institutional capital fuels the market

The global M2 money supply has surpassed $90 trillion, while ETFs and corporations now hold 6% of Bitcoin‘s total supply. A U.S. decision to allow 401(k) retirement accounts access to crypto could drive significant inflows. Even a 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion pool would translate to nearly $90 billion in demand.

Accumulation trends

In addition to ETFs holding 1.3 million BTC, MicroStrategy owns more than 629,000 coins worth about $71 billion. Transaction volumes are shifting toward larger blocks, signaling a market increasingly dominated by institutions rather than retail investors.

Network activity lags behind

Despite institutional strength, network usage remains below last year‘s levels. Daily transactions and active addresses are weaker, and retail participation has cooled. New initiatives such as BTCFi may be needed to reinvigorate retail activity.

On-chain data signals caution

Metrics like MVRV-Z (2.49) and ASOPR (1.019) suggest moderate profit-taking but not yet overheated conditions. NUPL stands at 0.558, indicating a healthy market position without euphoric excess. Overall: the market is hot, but not yet in bubble territory.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.