Bitcoin‘s famous four-year price cycle, historically driven by halving events and followed by bull and bear phases, is sparking fresh debate in 2025. Some analysts say the classic pattern may be fading, while others argue it‘s simply evolving and could still support long-term upside into 2026.

Why some experts think the cycle is broken

Critics of the traditional cycle point to a number of developments that differentiate this market from past ones. Institutional demand through spot ETFs and corporate holdings has kept volatility lower than in previous cycles, reducing the sharp post-peak crashes that once defined Bitcoin‘s price rhythm. Major firms and analysts, including from traditional finance, have suggested that the four-year pattern no longer holds and Bitcoin may be in a longer, more drawn-out bull phase.

Several prominent industry figures also believe the old cycle theory has lost relevance. They argue that growing macro demand, currency debasement and supportive regulation could propel Bitcoin to new highs well beyond traditional timing models, possibly into 2026 and beyond. Some forecasts even point to targets above $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Arguments for the cycle still holding

Not everyone agrees that the cycle is dead. Some analysts see signs that Bitcoin‘s market structure still follows elements of the four-year rhythm. According to this view, corrections and weaker price action seen in late 2025 fit within an extended bear phase rather than signaling the end of the pattern. They also note that selling pressure may be driven by traders expecting traditional cycle behavior, which could exaggerate downside.

Others suggest that while the mechanics of the cycle may shift, its core fractal pattern remains intact. In this interpretation, market participants‘ expectations and structural factors could cause the cycle to stretch or evolve rather than disappear altogether.

Outlook for Bitcoin markets

In summary:

Cycle critics: Institutional flows and changing market dynamics may be replacing traditional halving-based timing.

Cycle supporters: Core patterns could still apply, albeit in a stretched or modified form.

Outlook: The market‘s direction into 2026 may reveal whether this is a transformation or the next phase of Bitcoin‘s long-term trends.

Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.