Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis
Welcome to the first edition of our weekly Bitcoin analysis! We dive into Bitcoin's price action, from the monthly chart to the 4-hour chart, and assess whether the current trend is bullish, bearish, or neutral. This provides insight into future price movements and key levels to watch.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
As seen above, the price is currently in the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG). Since this is the first time we are using these terms and this analysis method, I will briefly explain them.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
An imbalanced price area where buyers and sellers were not in balance. The price often returns to correct this.
A mitigated Fair Value Gap means that the price has sought out and respected the imbalanced area. This is a crucial point: the price can consolidate and rise here or break through the level and decline further.
The price remains bullish as long as key support levels are not broken. Sometimes these levels are temporarily breached to shake out retail investors, but we have not seen that yet. However, sentiment among retail investors has become significantly more negative.
In the medium term, the price remains bullish as no key support levels have been broken. However, the price is currently in weekly Fair Value Gaps, resembling Break Away Gaps, which often do not want to be tested.
We are currently in a bearish trend after the liquidity sweep of Bitcoin's new ATH around the $109,000 price level.
The shorter the timeframe, the more noise. We won‘t go too deep here, but we can see that the price is moving in all directions and is currently consolidating.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own research based on your risk tolerance and investment strategy.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Possible External Factors
It is always wise to look ahead to important economic figures being released this week. These figures can impact the broader economy and, consequently, the crypto market. We often see Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies reacting to macroeconomic developments. Therefore, keep an eye on the following data this week:- Core Retail Sales (Monday, 17-03)
- Federal Funds Rates (Wednesday, 19-03)
- FOMC Statement (Wednesday, 19-03)
- Unemployment Claims (Thursday, 20-03)
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Bitcoin Price in the Long Term - Monthly Timeframe
We start with the monthly timeframe, where each candle represents a full month. Analyzing this price action helps determine the long-term trend.
As seen above, the price is currently in the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG). Since this is the first time we are using these terms and this analysis method, I will briefly explain them.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
An imbalanced price area where buyers and sellers were not in balance. The price often returns to correct this.
A mitigated Fair Value Gap means that the price has sought out and respected the imbalanced area. This is a crucial point: the price can consolidate and rise here or break through the level and decline further.
Where Can the Bitcoin Price Drop To?
Below $73,777, there is a Fair Value Area where the price may move, as well as the old ATH of the previous bull market ($69,000), which might still be tested. These are key support levels that could support the price. Of course, it is also possible to go even lower.The price remains bullish as long as key support levels are not broken. Sometimes these levels are temporarily breached to shake out retail investors, but we have not seen that yet. However, sentiment among retail investors has become significantly more negative.
Bitcoin in the Medium Term - Weekly Timeframe
Next, we look at the weekly timeframe, where each candle represents one week. This analysis helps identify the medium-term trend and provides more detail than the monthly chart.
In the medium term, the price remains bullish as no key support levels have been broken. However, the price is currently in weekly Fair Value Gaps, resembling Break Away Gaps, which often do not want to be tested.
Bitcoin in the Short Term - Daily Timeframe
Next, we look at the daily timeframe, where each candle represents one day. This analysis helps identify the short-term trend and provides more detail than the weekly chart.
We are currently in a bearish trend after the liquidity sweep of Bitcoin's new ATH around the $109,000 price level.
Bitcoin in the "Very" Short Term - 4-Hour Timeframe
Zooming in on the 4-hour timeframe, where each candle represents four hours, helps identify the very short-term trend.
The shorter the timeframe, the more noise. We won‘t go too deep here, but we can see that the price is moving in all directions and is currently consolidating.
Conclusion & Expectations
After analyzing Bitcoin across different timeframes, we conclude that the market is currently in a dynamic phase. The long-term trend remains bullish as long as key support levels hold, but shorter timeframes show more volatility and bearish pressure.Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own research based on your risk tolerance and investment strategy.