The XRP price saw a strong rally last week, but then experienced a sharp decline. After peaking around $3.66, the price recently fell by approximately 10% to around $3.21. What triggered this correction, what are the further expectations, and which factors offer optimism for the future?

Price Movement: From Rally to Correction

In the week leading up to the drop, XRP surged to a multi-year high of $3.66, momentarily surpassing the market cap of McDonald‘s. Shortly afterwards profit-taking occurred, pushing the price down about 10% to approximately $3.21, just above the support level near $3.34. Although both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced minor declines, XRP‘s movement was the sharpest — a sign of targeted profit-taking in this altcoin.

What Lies Behind This Price Drop?

A sharp rally often triggers significant profit-taking. Many investors sold their XRP holdings abruptly, causing the price to tumble 10% as the $3.66 level failed to hold. XRP broke below a key support range of $3.40–$3.46 and now sits just above another critical level — the 20-day moving average at around $3.00. If it falls below this level, many traders will see it as confirmation that the decline may continue, potentially leading to further selling.

XRP is still on track, according to analysts, to reclaim its 2018 peak of $3.84, provided the broader altcoin market remains bullish. Altcoins typically become more appealing when Bitcoin is consolidating, as investors shift capital. XRP is currently viewed as a strong alternative, with substantial liquidity and market cap. Many investors are realising gains in Bitcoin to reinvest in XRP. Institutional investors, too, may gain greater confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Analysts Optimistic on XRP Price

Many analysts and experts remain optimistic about XRP‘s future. Bitpanda CEO Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad, for instance, emphasises that XRP remains well-positioned to recover to $3.84, as long as capital flows into altcoins. Despite the recent correction, XRP remains above key indicators such as the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). While it stays above that average, the upward trend still looks intact. Some analysts even project potential rallies to $6–$7, or even $10 if sentiment improves and support holds.

Attention is also turning to Ripple‘s lawsuit: by 15 August, both Ripple and the SEC must submit a status report, increasing the likelihood of a settlement. Ripple has already paid the $125 million penalty — in cash, not XRP. This upcoming date will be a critical milestone, determining whether the lawsuit will continue or conclude. Whatever the outcome, it is bound to have a noticeable impact on XRP.

What Can We Expect? Key Scenarios

Optimistic Scenario

Temporary dip, followed by recovery towards $4 and above
In this scenario, the dip to around $3.00–$3.20 is seen as a short-term correction within a broader uptrend. It assumes the market remains optimistic about a settlement in the Ripple vs SEC case, and that sentiment strengthens as 15 August approaches.
If XRP holds around $3.20, a rebound to $3.84 could follow — retesting its recent local high. A breakout above that level could propel the price to $5.00–$6.00 based on technical forecasts. Positive legal news or growing demand—such as from ETF applications or global adoption—could support this outcome.

Neutral Scenario

Sideways consolidation between $3.20 and $3.60
A neutral scenario sees XRP stabilising between $3.20 and $3.60. This suggests investors are adopting a “wait and see” approach, with uncertainty over the court case, market volatility, and macro factors causing hesitation. In this case, the price moves sideways within a defined range with low volatility, but relatively healthy volume.
For bulls, a renewed move towards $3.50–$3.60 would test resistance — a break above that range could bring momentum, but until then XRP remains in a consolidating phase. The price will be particularly sensitive to external triggers like SEC statements, Fed rate decisions, or Bitcoin movements.

Bearish Scenario

Break below $3.00 could trigger further selling pressure
In this negative scenario, XRP drops below the psychological threshold of $3.00. This level acts as crucial support, and a breakdown could intensify the downtrend. Potential target zones lie around $2.80 and even $2.60, where significant support previously existed.
A fall below $3 might result from a lack of positive legal developments, reduced trading volume, or broader altcoin weakness. If this plays out, sentiment could turn sharply bearish — leading to stop-loss triggers and investor capitulation, possibly resulting in an extended period of consolidation and weak buying interest.

Conclusion

XRP initially impressed with a sharp rally to $3.66, followed by a profit-led correction to around $3.21 — a normal reaction after a rapid gain. While some technical indicators point to short-term weakness, analysts such as those at Bitpanda see signs of potential recovery toward $3.84. A breakout above that resistance could even open the way to $5–$6. Keep an eye on key levels around $3.00 and $3.66, as well as broader market rotations and altcoin sentiment.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor.