XRP posted a gain of approximately 2.4% over the past 24 hours, with the price now hovering near a potential breakout point. But is it actually coming, or do we need to wait a bit longer? Three key indicators suggest that the rally may be facing a delay.

1. HODL Waves: traders are exiting

HODL Waves, an on-chain metric that tracks how long coins are held, is showing signs of declining buying power:

Holdings from investors with a 3–6 month horizon have dropped from 12.08% at $3.54 to 8.71% at the current price.

Likewise, holders with positions between 1 week and 1 month saw their share shrink from 7.52% at $3.13 to 4.96%.

This suggests that many short- and mid-term investors are taking profits rather than increasing their positions, which could slow down the upward movement.

2. Whale activity increasing: more large transactions to exchanges

Whales (large investors) are once again moving significant amounts of XRP to exchanges, which has historically been a bearish signal:

Whale-to-exchange flow recently peaked, similar to early August when the price dropped from $3.07 to $2.96.

This movement increases supply on the market and lowers the chance of a swift rise unless major buyers step in.

3. OBV divergence: rising price, falling buy pressure

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a technical indicator that measures the relationship between buying and selling pressure by adding or subtracting trading volume based on price movement. It is often used to assess whether a price trend is supported by volume.

In XRP‘s case, we‘re seeing a notable negative divergence: while the price has recently ticked up to around $0.635, the OBV has formed a lower peak. This means that trading volume during this rise is decreasing or stagnating. This mismatch signals that the recent price increase is not backed by rising buy pressure — a potential red flag. Traders and analysts often interpret this as a sign of a weak rally or an impending short-term pullback, unless strong volume returns to support the move.

Resistance levels and possible scenarios XRP

If a breakout occurs, immediate resistance levels for XRP are at $3.43 and then $3.51. Should momentum continue, potential targets lie between $3.62 and $3.76. Until then, the price may consolidate around the $3.25–$3.10 zone. If the price drops below $3.10, the broader bullish trend could be at risk, with a possible decline towards $2.72 or even lower.

Conclusion

While the potential for a breakout looms, both on-chain data and technical indicators point to a cautious market. Profit-taking, strong whale selling pressure, and weakening buy momentum are currently holding the rally back. Investors are closely watching key levels like $3.43 and $3.10 to determine the next move.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult professional guidance.